Who's in Charge?

Moscow, May 7th, and with a grandiose entrance through the Kremlin's banqueting hall, Vladimir Putin took his place at the podium. Meanwhile, the little known Dimitry Medvedev entered through an ordinary door and took his place next to him. Any observer would be forgiven for mistaking who was in charge here. This was supposedly the official inauguration of Medvedev as President of Russia while Putin takes up his new, and comparatively lowly, position as his prime minister.

What does this actually mean for Russia? Well, what actually happens in Russia really matters and has major repercussions for the world at large. Although Putin has brought Russia back onto the international stage as a main player again and assured stability, this has all been at the expense of democracy and major tensions with the West. Therefore change in the doldrums of power leaves Russia hanging in the balance. The new youthful Deep-Purple-loving Medvedev is the first leader not to come from the old Communist party or the security services. His inaugural speech appears optimistic, respecting both the rule of law and what seems to be genuine liberal tendencies. Therefore, in theory the change of power seems to be a good thing.

However, in practice, any optimism is overstated. Next to nothing is known about Medvedev, even in Russia itself let alone on the international stage. Additionally, he owes everything to Putin for rising to this position and it is this very thing which will prove problematic. There is no sign that Putin is going anywhere. He still looms ominously over Russian politics and has transferred significant powers to himself. Medvedev will surely be smothered by his embrace. The general expectation is that Putin will remain in charge as the dominant figure. Footage of the inaugural service only reinforced this view with the appearance of the stern headmaster (Putin) lecturing the student on the last day of term (Medvedev). This is clearly not a real transfer of power.

In saying this, this surely presents the West, and the rest of the world for that matter, with the opportunity to take advantage of this new situation. The presidency is still the most powerful position in Russia and hopefully he has the courage to forge out an independent line from Putin. Russia's entire history is based upon direction coming from one source. It is endemic of their political culture and any division of power will surely cause major problems. Things are too early to call, but every leader starts off in the shadow of their predecessors to some extent. A cautious olive branch should be extended from the West focusing on his actions rather than rhetoric. This is not time to show weakness against this mighty bear.